ABSTRACT
Floods are the most commonly occurring natural disaster, with the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters 2021 report on "The Non-COVID Year in Disasters" estimating economic losses worth over USD 51 million and more than 6000 fatalities in 2020. The hydrodynamic models which are used for flood forecasting need to be evaluated and constrained using observations of water depth and extent. While remotely sensed estimates of these variables have already facilitated model evaluation, citizen sensing is emerging as a popular technique to complement real-time flood observations. However, its value for hydraulic model evaluation has not yet been demonstrated. This paper tests the use of crowd-sourced flood observations to quantitatively assess model performance for the first time. The observation set used for performance assessment consists of 32 distributed high water marks and wrack marks provided by the Clarence Valley Council for the 2013 flood event, whose timings of acquisition were unknown. Assuming that these provide information on the peak flow, maximum simulated water levels were compared at observation locations, to calibrate the channel roughness for the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP. For each realization of the model, absolute and relative simulation errors were quantified through the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the mean percentage difference (MPD), respectively. Similar information was extracted from 11 hydrometric gauges along the Clarence River and used to constrain the roughness parameter. The calibrated parameter values were identical for both data types and a mean RMSE value of ~50 cm for peak flow simulation was obtained across all gauges. Results indicate that integrating uncertain flood observations from crowd-sourcing can indeed generate a useful dataset for hydraulic model calibration in ungauged catchments, despite the lack of associated timing information.
ABSTRACT
Transit-oriented development (TOD) is an urban designed model aimed at attracting more sustainable travellers. However, not all TOD projects succeed in maintaining a high rate of sustainable travel behaviour. To examine the impacts of TOD on residents' travel behaviour, this paper applies binary logistic regression to analyse survey data for 1,298 residents living in the TOD areas in Hangzhou collected in 2020. The results show that socioeconomic characteristics, built environment factors, and travel attitudes play important roles in influencing their travel mode choices. Furthermore, the number of children in households and higher levels of car ownership significantly influence residents' sustainable travel behaviours. However, it appears that only a limited number of factors can convince car users to shift to sustainable modes of travel, such as their workplace being accessible by metro and attitudes towards changes in accessibility. This research study contributes to the existing literature in terms of enhancing the understanding of travel mode choice behaviours, particularly with regard to people who live near public transport infrastructure, as well as formulating evidence-based TOD policies to achieve more sustainable transport systems.
ABSTRACT
Lake eutrophication has become a critical environmental issue due to the global effects of anthropogenic activities and climate change, and has been comprehensively studied for many years. A series of models and indicators have been proposed to assess the trophic state of lakes. The trophic state index (TSI) is a synthetic index that integrates chlorophyll-a, water clarity, and total phosphorus and is widely used to evaluate the trophic state of aquatic environments. In this study, we collected in situ lake samples (N = 431) from typical lakes to match Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) imagery data using the Case 2 Regional Coast Color processor. Then we developed a new empirical model, TSI = -34.04 x (band 4/band 5) - 1.114 x (band 1/band 4) + 97.376. This model is valid for all of China, with good performance and few errors (RMSE = 7.36;MAE = 6.25) for the validation dataset. Recognizing that over 94% of the Chinese population located along eastern watersheds and large lakes have competing water uses, and given the TSI model on the seasonal scales, we further estimated the mean TSI and trophic state in eastern Chinese lakes (> 100 km2) from 2019 to 2020. The results revealed that more lakes were eutrophic in autumn (94.28%) than in spring (> 77.14%), indicating a serious eutrophication of eastern lakes. Although the eastern lakes have been studied in more detail, this study found that eutrophication still has markedly negative impacts on lake ecosystems. In addition, no significant improvement was observed in spring, most likely due to the months of curfew/lockdown from January 2020 onwards due to COVID-19. This may be due to the enrichment of nutrients deposited in sediment or watershed soil, which can be characterized as "autochthonous sources" of lake eutrophication, over decades with high rates of economic development. This study demonstrates the applicability of Sentinel-2 MSI data to monitor lake eutrophication as well as the feasibility of blue/red and red/red edge combinations. The framework and TSI model used bands available on MSI sensors to develop a novel approach for generating historical eutrophication data for large-scale evaluation of and decision-making related aquatic environmental changes, even in poorly studied areas.
ABSTRACT
P35 Figure 1ConclusionsUnplanned hospital attendances are common amongst cirrhotic patients, particularly those from lower socioeconomic groups. Over half of patients with at least one liver-related admission died during the follow up period, with two thirds of these deaths occurring during or shortly after discharge.The data shows the true burden of liver disease and highlights the need for improved in-patient care for this vulnerable patient group.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundIn September 2020, in-person smoking cessation courses, running for many years at St Vincent’s University Hospital, were converted to online delivery due to COVID-19. The courses, which normally were held in person in the early evening, were directed at patients and members of the hospital catchment area community. The difficulties in forming supportive networks online and lack of carbon monoxide monitoring for motivation when developing an ‘ex-smoker’ identity were initial concerns with the move online. The aim of this study was to compare in-person and online participation, satisfaction and quit rates.MethodsThe six-week programme was slightly adjusted for online use. Pre-course meetings, with individuals or in small groups, were organised to meet participants and sort technical issues.Registration and follow-up data were analysed from January 2015 – February 2020 (in-person group 6-week course;272 participants) and March 2020 – November 2021 (online group 6-week course;62 participants). Data was also available for 107 in-person and 23 online participants who completed evaluation forms.ResultsOnline participants were more significantly more likely to be female (73.6% vs 58.9%;p=0.022) and have a mean age approximately 4 years younger (46.8 vs 50.9;p=0.011). Online participants were also significantly more likely to use pharmacotherapy (74.6% vs 47.8%;p<0.001). The online and in-person groups had similar attendance, with an average of 3.56 and 3.8 sessions attended respectively. The online groups had non-significantly higher quit rates at the end of course, at 1 month, and 3 months than their onsite counterparts (47.9 vs 45%;40.3 vs 35%;22.8% vs 22.5%;ns). ‘Useful’ ratings were similar – 98% (in-person) and 96% (online).DiscussionThe move online was successful, with similar engagement and ratings and a maintenance of quit rates. However, the demographic shift is notable;technology requirements may have deterred older smokers. When we return fully to normal in-person service delivery, this is a COVID-related change we will continue as part of a hybrid model of smoking cessation courses, as online courses should continue to suit some future participants.
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to update the exposure to flood risk in a catchment area of the Community of Madrid (Spain) linked to primary sector activities, albeit affected by the urban expansion of the capital. This research starts with the updating of the flood inventory, encompassing episodes documented between 1629 and 2020. The inadequate occupation of the territory means that floods continue to cause significant damage nowadays. It is worth highlighting the two recent floods (2019) that occurred just 15 days apart and caused serious damage to several towns in the basin. The areas at risk of flooding are obtained from the National Floodplain Mapping System, and the maximum and minimum floodable volume in the sector of the Tajuña River basin with the highest exposure to flooding has been calculated. The Sentinel 2 image in false colour (RGB bands 11-2-3, 11-8-3 and 12-11-8) and its transformation to colour properties (Intensity, Hue and Saturation) has made it possible to determine the extension of the riparian vegetation and the irrigated crops located in the alluvial plain. The SPOT 6 image with higher spatial resolution has allowed us to update the mapping of buildings located in areas at risk of flooding. Finally, based on cadastral data, a detailed cartography of built-up areas in areas at risk of flooding is provided. They affect buildings built mainly between the 1960s and 1990s, although the most recent buildings are built on agricultural land in the alluvial plain, even though current regulations prevent the occupation of these lands.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The Penn State CTSI has been working diligently to help communities in their fight against COVID-19. As the rapidly evolving COVID-19 situation has unfolded the Penn State CTSI has been able to provide support to our community stakeholders. As our communities have and are faced with unprecedented challenges, our CTSI has been there every step of the way. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The Penn State CTSI is unique as it sits in rural Pennsylvania that not only spans a wide catchment area but also many diverse communities. The Penn State CTSI connected with our communities throughout the pandemic to bring timely and culturally appropriate information about the novel COVID-19 pandemic through our own institution and in partnership with community leaders. Stakeholder boards were formed to hear from various communities about hardships and challenges that were and are being faced due to COVID-19. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The Penn State CTSI provided our communities with information through various different platforms to ensure that needs were being met in dissemination of pertinent information related to COVID-19. No only was information tailored to the specific needs that were discussed during stakeholder boards, the information was provided in different languages and platforms in order to meet cultural and other needs to ensure health equity and literacy were met. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Not only did the Penn State CTSI provide these services to our current community partners new partnerships were formed to create stronger alliances amongst those being serve. Members of the Penn State CTSI were invited to serve on state and local advisory bords and became trusted messengers in our communities.
ABSTRACT
Equal accessibility to healthcare services is essential to the achievement of health equality. Recent studies have made important progresses in leveraging GIS-based location–allocation models to optimize the equality of healthcare accessibility, but have overlooked the hierarchical nature of facilities. This study developed a hierarchical maximal accessibility equality model for optimizing hierarchical healthcare facilities. The model aims to maximize the equality of healthcare facilities, which is quantified as the variance of the accessibility to facilities at each level. It also accounts for different catchment area sizes of, and distance friction effects for hierarchical facilities. To make the optimization more realistic, it can also simultaneously consider both existing and new facilities that can be located anywhere. The model was operationalized in a case study of Shenzhen, China. Empirical results indicate that the optimal healthcare facility allocation based on the model provided more equal accessibility than the status quo. Compared to the current distribution, the accessibility equality of tertiary and secondary healthcare facilities in optimal solutions can be improved by 40% and 38%, respectively. Both newly added facilities and adjustments of existing facilities are needed to achieve equal healthcare accessibility. Furthermore, the optimization results are quite different for facilities at different levels, which highlights the feasibility and value of the proposed hierarchical maximal accessibility equality model. This study provides transferable methods for the equality-oriented optimization and planning of hierarchical facilities.
ABSTRACT
The problem of statutory restrictions of the freedom to conduct business activities is a subject addressed by many researchers. On the other hand, there is little research into the spatial aspect of this phenomenon and its impact on the quality of life of the inhabitants of urban centres in terms of their exclusion from one of the key motivations for travelling, namely shopping trips. The main purpose of the article is to determine the impact of the introduction of a statutory restriction on Sunday trading on sustainable urban development in terms of identifying areas excluded from free access to such services within a large urban settlement in Poland. Our studies on accessibility by car utilised data from ITS systems, the assumptions of the probabilistic Huff Model, and methods to determine market catchment areas. The data used in the study were based on the results of a questionnaire survey. The research procedure was conducted for eight scenarios that covered two periods (March 2019 and November 2020) on trading and non-trading Sundays. The conducted research shows that changes in the temporal accessibility of grocery shops in Łódź within the analysed periods are noticeable for trading and non-trading Sundays. In both cases, accessibility by private car is decidedly worse on non-trading Sundays. Transport exclusion from accessibility to grocery shops applies, in particular, to residents of peripheral areas of the city and is further compounded by the statutory Sunday retail restrictions implemented nationwide.
ABSTRACT
In this paper we analyze the changes in accessibility to emergency and community food services before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the City of Hamilton, Ontario. Many of these food services are the last line of support for households facing food insecurity; as such, their relevance cannot be ignored in the midst of the economic upheaval caused by the pandemic. Our analysis is based on the application of balanced floating catchment areas and concentrates on households with lower incomes (Subject(s)
COVID-19
, Food Services
, Child
, Humans
, Ontario/epidemiology
, Pandemics
, Poverty
, SARS-CoV-2